It further added that the temperature in most of China in December will be warmer than normal, according to the China Meteorological Administration and that will change in January when it is likely to be colder than normal
Thermal coal imports in China will increase in December as the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) wants to stabilize the price for QHD 5500 variety to below RMB 600 per tonne, global energy consultancy firm Woodmac said in a statement.
The company said that market news is that the NDRC asked coal miners to increase supply at the end of September and that domestic supply increased in October to 336 million tonne, compared with 331 million tonne in September, or 325 Mt last October. However, the company’s analysts opine that 20 Mt of additional coal should not be purchased for delivery to China in December. “Firstly, it would cause both seaborne coal prices and freight to immediately spike, which is not what the Chinese government wants. Secondly, unloading imported coal in Chinese ports will not be easy anytime soon as we estimate the ports are full of imported coal yet to clear,” it added.
It further added that the temperature in most of China in December will be warmer than normal, according to the China Meteorological Administration and that will change in January when it is likely to be colder than normal.
In such a scenario, gencos preferred to get more supply in late December or January, considering the current high inventory. “We expect over 10 Mt of Indonesia thermal coal will arrive in China in December,” WoodMac concluded adding that Indonesian products are mainly low-sulfur, low-ash coal, needed for China’s gencos to blend with domestic high-sulfur coal in winter.